Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Similar role-group matchups historically pace this line. Pace +1.4 std-dev tonight, defensive rebounding split favors over. Closing line most-likely settles at 32.
An AI model for NBA player props & NRL game markets. We compute the calibrated probability behind every bookmaker line.
Tonight's slate · v5 · 2026-05-11
This is what a model-surfaced pick looks like. Calibrated probability, fractional-Kelly stake, the line and the book. Click any card to see the full analysis.
Tonight
The highest-EV picks from our model, live and graded against the closing line.
Similar role-group matchups historically pace this line. Pace +1.4 std-dev tonight, defensive rebounding split favors over. Closing line most-likely settles at 32.
The Engine
V8.7 is an ensemble of three deep networks with per-market Gaussian output heads. Walk-forward validated. No look-ahead.
Pace, rest, role group, opponent split, line movement, weather
Walk-forward — every pick made on data available at the time
Per-market Gaussian heads — points, rebounds, hits, Ks and more
Against the closing line. Pushes counted. No retroactive edits
ENSEMBLE: F1 (player-month) + F3 (player-game) · F2 excluded (corr_p_label = 0.058)
Track record
Every premium pick from the last 28 days, graded against the closing book line.
The model · in the room
Every probability we surface is graded against the closing line. No retroactive edits, no silent re-grades, no theatrics.
Coverage
Per-sport calibration. Per-market output heads. Same audit-grade transparency.
Same model framework, per-sport calibration. MLB ships first (June), AFL follows for the back-end of the season.
Beat the Model · free to play
Agree or disagree on tonight's top 15 plays. Beat the model's score by month-end and win $100.
Whoever has the most units at month-end wins. Free. No card required.
3-Pointers Made · Over 3.5
Assists · Under 9.5
Blocks · Over 2.5
How it works
V8.7 reads the slate, computes 394 features per player, and outputs calibrated probabilities for every prop.
Top 15 picks get pushed to your Beat-the-Model card. Tap agree, tap disagree, or skip. No money required.
Optionally log bets in the bankroll tracker. Per-user 50u cap, off-market exclusion, full audit log.
The pulse runs end-to-end every ~5 seconds. Every step is logged. Every probability is published.
Monthly leaderboard · public · resets May 1
Off-market odds excluded — you can't pad ROI on stale lines.
Rank by total units won in graded bets. Min 30 bets to qualify.
52 active users · 1,847 graded bets this month
Compared
Most prop services post screenshots of cropped winning slips. We post the full ledger.
VeritasSignals · 65.2% win rate · +65.14% ROI · Other services anonymized. ROI computed against closing book line.
What subscribers say
“I followed the premium picks for three weeks and stopped second-guessing them. The W/L log is the closest thing to a real prospectus I've seen from a tout site.”
“What sold me was the 'no live line' chip. Every other service quietly fakes -110. These guys just admit when the book hasn't priced something.”
“Beat the Model is genuinely fun. Forced me to actually read the matchup notes before tapping disagree. Now I just tap agree.”
Plain-language guides
Read about Kelly, calibration, and what 244–39–0 actually means.
Pricing · launch period
Every feature unlocked, no card on file. We'd rather you trust the model first.
No card required. No paywall. Every pick, every bookmaker comparison, every alt line, the betslip, Beat the Model — all open through the end of the NBA playoffs.
Why? You shouldn't have to pay to find out if a model is real. Watch the picks land for a month. If we earn it, the tiers below kick in when playoffs end.
After playoffs — preview only
These tiers are NOT active right now
When the time comes: no long-term contract, cancel from settings, refund within 7 days. Until then: free.
Questions
Still curious? Read the methodology paper →