V8.7 · live · 2 NBA games tonight

Thetruthbehindtheline.

An AI model for NBA player props & NRL game markets. We compute the calibrated probability behind every bookmaker line.

Premium ROI+65.14%
Record00–0
Top-3 ROI+83.38%
★ 244–39–0 recordSix seasons backtested+65.14% ROI · 28d★ Calibrated probabilityClosing-line gradedPushes counted as pushes★ 412 picks logged$100 monthly prizeOff-market odds excluded★ Fractional Kelly clampsReal bookmaker odds onlyPublic ledger, every pick★ 244–39–0 recordSix seasons backtested+65.14% ROI · 28d★ Calibrated probabilityClosing-line gradedPushes counted as pushes★ 412 picks logged$100 monthly prizeOff-market odds excluded★ Fractional Kelly clampsReal bookmaker odds onlyPublic ledger, every pick★ 244–39–0 recordSix seasons backtested+65.14% ROI · 28d★ Calibrated probabilityClosing-line gradedPushes counted as pushes★ 412 picks logged$100 monthly prizeOff-market odds excluded★ Fractional Kelly clampsReal bookmaker odds onlyPublic ledger, every pick

Tonight's slate · v5 · 2026-05-11

Three picks. Three reasons.

This is what a model-surfaced pick looks like. Calibrated probability, fractional-Kelly stake, the line and the book. Click any card to see the full analysis.

2 games · 20 picks tonightFirst tip · 8:05 PM ET

Tonight

Three best plays, surfaced now.

The highest-EV picks from our model, live and graded against the closing line.

★ Top pick · tonight
★ Hot · EV +67%
OKC @ LAL

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Over31.5Points
Model probability
74%
+67% EV· 10u suggested

Similar role-group matchups historically pace this line. Pace +1.4 std-dev tonight, defensive rebounding split favors over. Closing line most-likely settles at 32.

FanDuelLive · -114
LAL vs OKC

Anthony Davis

Over11.5Rebounds
71%
DraftKings+46% EV-108
CLE vs DET

Donovan Mitchell

Over33.5Pts + Asts
68%
BetMGM+30% EV-110

The Engine

What's actually under the hood.

V8.7 is an ensemble of three deep networks with per-market Gaussian output heads. Walk-forward validated. No look-ahead.

01
0+
Features per player

Pace, rest, role group, opponent split, line movement, weather

02
0
Seasons backtested

Walk-forward — every pick made on data available at the time

03
0+
Markets covered

Per-market Gaussian heads — points, rebounds, hits, Ks and more

04
0
Picks graded · last 28d

Against the closing line. Pushes counted. No retroactive edits

Ingest
player + market state
Compute
394-feature inference
Publish
probability + EV + audit log

ENSEMBLE: F1 (player-month) + F3 (player-game) · F2 excluded (corr_p_label = 0.058)

Track record

Six seasons of receipts.

Every premium pick from the last 28 days, graded against the closing book line.

Premium ROI
+65.14%
Premium W–L
00
Top-3 ROI
+83.38%
36–3 record
28-day calendar

Pick by pick, win or loss.

WinLossPush

The model · in the room

Calibrated. Documented. Reproducible.

Every probability we surface is graded against the closing line. No retroactive edits, no silent re-grades, no theatrics.

Coverage

Two sports. One framework.

Per-sport calibration. Per-market output heads. Same audit-grade transparency.

NBA
Season · 2025–26
1,230 games · 449 players
ROI · 28d
+65.14%
244–39–0
Markets · 8
  • Points
  • Rebounds
  • Assists
  • Threes made
  • Pts + Asts
  • Pts + Reb + Ast
  • Blocks · Steals
  • Double-double
Tonight · sample
SGA · points
O 31.5+9.2u
AD · rebounds
O 11.5+4.6u
See tonight's full board
Coming next

MLB & AFL launch when the NBA playoffs end.

Same model framework, per-sport calibration. MLB ships first (June), AFL follows for the back-end of the season.

MLBAFL

Beat the Model · free to play

You vs the model. Every night.

Agree or disagree on tonight's top 15 plays. Beat the model's score by month-end and win $100.

Monthly prize$100cash · paid Stripe

Beat the model's score. Take the pot.

  • Agree with the model → push (0u)
  • Disagree + win+1u
  • Disagree + lose−1u

Whoever has the most units at month-end wins. Free. No card required.

✓ 100% free
This month
15 challenges · nightly
Resets
1st of every month
Tonight · Challenge 1

Jayson Tatum

3-Pointers Made · Over 3.5

Model says
61%
Tonight · Challenge 2

Tyrese Haliburton

Assists · Under 9.5

Model says
58%
Tonight · Challenge 3

Victor Wembanyama

Blocks · Over 2.5

Model says
66%

How it works

Three steps. No vibes.

01
02
03

Model runs nightly.

V8.7 reads the slate, computes 394 features per player, and outputs calibrated probabilities for every prop.

You agree or disagree.

Top 15 picks get pushed to your Beat-the-Model card. Tap agree, tap disagree, or skip. No money required.

Track on real money.

Optionally log bets in the bankroll tracker. Per-user 50u cap, off-market exclusion, full audit log.

The pulse runs end-to-end every ~5 seconds. Every step is logged. Every probability is published.

Monthly leaderboard · public · resets May 1

Top 5 split the pot.

Off-market odds excluded — you can't pad ROI on stale lines.

Monthly prize pool$200cash · paid Stripe · 1st of month
Payout · top 5 split
  • 🥇1st place50%$100
  • 🥈2nd place30%$60
  • 🥉3rd place10%$20
  • 44th place5%$10
  • 55th place5%$10

Rank by total units won in graded bets. Min 30 bets to qualify.

🥇
@longshot_lex+$100
64 bets · +51.2% ROI
+87.4 u
🥈
@parlay_paula+$60
71 bets · +38.8% ROI
+62.1 u
🥉
@unders_only+$20
89 bets · +24.4% ROI
+41.8 u
4
@regression_rob+$10
55 bets · +21.1% ROI
+33.9 u
5
@kelly_was_right+$10
42 bets · +17.9% ROI
+27.6 u
See full leaderboard

52 active users · 1,847 graded bets this month

Compared

The difference is the receipts.

Most prop services post screenshots of cropped winning slips. We post the full ledger.

Public W/L log
Yes, every pick.
No — screenshots only.
Real bookmaker odds only
Yes — we exclude stale lines.
No — they fill with -110 defaults.
Stake-sizing math
Fractional Kelly, clamped at 50u/day.
No sizing guidance.
Calibration proof
Live calibration plot, audited monthly.
Trust us.
Free tier
Yes — 1 pick/day, full track record.
Paywall behind a Discord invite.

VeritasSignals · 65.2% win rate · +65.14% ROI · Other services anonymized. ROI computed against closing book line.

What subscribers say

Receipts, by other people.

HM
@hoopsline_marc
+18.4u in 21 days
I followed the premium picks for three weeks and stopped second-guessing them. The W/L log is the closest thing to a real prospectus I've seen from a tout site.
Verified premium
SS
@spreadsheet_sam
Premium subscriber, 4 months
What sold me was the 'no live line' chip. Every other service quietly fakes -110. These guys just admit when the book hasn't priced something.
Verified premium
LW
@late_window_lana
Top-50 leaderboard, March
Beat the Model is genuinely fun. Forced me to actually read the matchup notes before tapping disagree. Now I just tap agree.
Verified premium

Pricing · launch period

Free during the NBA playoffs.

Every feature unlocked, no card on file. We'd rather you trust the model first.

Right nowFREEThrough end of playoffs

Use everything. Decide later.

No card required. No paywall. Every pick, every bookmaker comparison, every alt line, the betslip, Beat the Model — all open through the end of the NBA playoffs.

Why? You shouldn't have to pay to find out if a model is real. Watch the picks land for a month. If we earn it, the tiers below kick in when playoffs end.

After playoffs — preview only

These tiers are NOT active right now

Inactive

Free

$0forever
  • 1 top pick / day
  • Public track record
  • Beat the Model
  • Monthly leaderboard
Inactive

Premium

$29/ month
  • All daily picks (up to 14)
  • Full reasoning per pick
  • Stake-sizing & EV guidance
  • Live line-movement alerts
  • Cancel anytime

When the time comes: no long-term contract, cancel from settings, refund within 7 days. Until then: free.

Questions

The things people ask.

  • Every pick is logged before the game tips off — with the player, market, line, side, units, book, and odds. After the game it's graded against the closing line at the originating book. We post wins, losses, pushes, and unsettled. No retroactive edits. The full audit log is public.

  • Walk-forward validation. The model never sees data from games it's predicting. Every pick is timestamped at publication and graded automatically — there's no human in the loop deciding what counts. The ledger is append-only.

  • If a bookmaker hasn't priced something within ~3 ticks of the live market, that line is stale or about to move. Building ROI on stale lines is a known leak in the prop-betting space. We exclude them by default and flag the exclusion in the audit log so you can verify.

  • We compute the Kelly fraction from the model's probability and the offered odds, then clamp at 0.25-Kelly (defensive) with a hard per-user 50u daily cap. The result: you can follow the picks without blowing up your bankroll on a bad night. Sizing math is shown on every pick.

  • No. We publish calibrated probabilities and historical performance. You decide what to do with them. We make no guarantee of future results, and we strongly recommend bankroll discipline. 21+, gamble responsibly.

  • You can cancel from Settings at any time. We refund within 7 days of any charge, no questions. Your free-tier access stays active forever — public track record, 1 pick per day, Beat-the-Model, leaderboard.