CAM 1
CAM 3
Toby GreeneGWS vs STK · Sat 20 Jun · 19:25 AEST AFL · LIVE
DisposalsU24.5-111SportsBet
Edge+2.1%Model P62%Stake2.5uTierS
ON AIRLIVE · TONIGHT’S SLATE
Tonight’s edges.Called before tip-off.
A calibrated model prices every player prop on the slate, publishes its picks the evening before, and grades each one against the closing line — on the public record. No hindsight. No deleted losses. Game night, every night.
Season+199uWeeks up20/24On the board8 picks
NBA LIVE AFL LIVEMLB COMINGFREE TIER · 3 picks/daySAFETY CAPS · 5u/pick · 40u/day
01 · Tonight’s board
The starting lineup.
Every chyron is a real call: market, line, side, the book that priced it, and the model’s numbers next to it. Free members see three a day — the full board goes to Premium.
Top 1Top 3Premium-15BTM-15CURATION GATE · EV > 0.08 · ODDS ≤ 3.5
Christian PetraccaMEL vs ESS · Sat 20 Jun · 13:45 AEST AFL · LIVE
DisposalsO28.5-102TAB
Edge+1.9%Model P57%Stake2.0uTierA
Noah AndersonGCS vs GEE · Sun 21 Jun · 15:20 AEST AFL · LIVE
DisposalsO30.5+105Ladbrokes
Edge+1.6%Model P55%Stake1.5uTierA
Touk MillerGCS vs GEE · Sun 21 Jun · 15:20 AEST AFL · LIVE
HandballsO13.5-110Neds
Edge+1.1%Model P54%Stake1.0uTierB
Nathan ClearyPEN vs SOU · Fri 19 Jun · 20:00 AEST NRL · DEV
Try AssistsO1.5+108SportsBet
Edge+1.9%Model P55%Stake2.0uTierA
Reece WalshBRI vs MEL · Thu 18 Jun · 19:50 AEST NRL · DEV
Run MetresO145.5-106TAB
Edge+1.5%Model P56%Stake1.5uTierA
8 picks on tonight’s slate · stakes are model-recommended unitsUnlock the full board →
Cut between tonight’s feeds.
Every pick is a camera. Scroll to ride the switcher — the program monitor cuts feed to feed, the tally lights follow, and the lower-third populates with the live call.
PROGRAM
L8 FORM vs U24.5
St Kilda deploy Marcus Windhager as a run-with tagger — opponents he locks onto average 22.0 disposals.
Toby GreeneU24.5 Disposals · -111 SportsBet+2.1% EDGE · 62% MODEL
L8 FORM vs O28.5
Petracca's inside-mid role is back to a 78% centre-bounce share; Essendon leak disposals through the middle.
Christian PetraccaO28.5 Disposals · -102 TAB+1.9% EDGE · 57% MODEL
L8 FORM vs O30.5
Anderson's captaincy ball-magnet role has produced 32+ disposals in 6 of his last 8.
Noah AndersonO30.5 Disposals · +105 Ladbrokes+1.6% EDGE · 55% MODEL
L8 FORM vs O13.5
Miller's contested-mid usage drives handball volume in tight; 15+ handballs in 4 of last 5.
Touk MillerO13.5 Handballs · -110 Neds+1.1% EDGE · 54% MODEL
Roll the tape on one settled pick.
This is the whole product in three frames: a posted line, the model’s own number, and the graded result. Every pick on the record gets exactly this treatment. Illustrative sample pick
Toby GreeneGWS vs STK · DisposalsU24.5
21.8 proj disposalsσ 4.0 · 24.5 line · model goes under in 62% of simsUNDER+2.1% EDGE
19 actual disposals5.5 under the line · clear of the 24.5 numberWIN
Graded vs the closing line — it closed 23.5, the model beat the close by a full point. Wins and losses both stay on the public record.
The rundown, every night.
A control-room schedule, not a hot-take feed. The same four segments run in the same order, every single game night. The model curates 15 picks per slate — only props clearing EV > 0.08 and odds ≤ 3.5 make the board. AFL runs the same pipeline, live, on the shared cross-sport board.
- 15:00Nightly model run
Every player prop on tomorrow's slate is re-priced from scratch — matchups, pace, roles, rest, injuries. No human overrides.
- 16:30Calibrated probability
Raw projections become calibrated probabilities, validated against thousands of settled outcomes. The number means what it says.
- 18:00Evening delivery
Picks publish the evening before tip-off with line, book, stake and reasoning — time to shop the price, never a last-minute scramble.
- POSTGraded vs the close
After settlement, every pick is graded against the closing line and stamped onto the public track record. Losses included.
Chalk on the frozen frame.
Freeze Toby Greene’s last eight on the U24.5 disposals, then mark it up. Scroll to draw the read — the cluster under the line, the gap to the number, the edge it prices — as each note comes up on the board.
Three cuts. One pick’s whole life.
The call goes up, the model shows its number, the result gets stamped. Scroll to run the reel — every pick on the record lives exactly this way. Illustrative sample pick
VSN · TONIGHT’S BOARDToby GreeneGWS vs STK · Sat 20 Jun · 19:25 AESTU24.5 DISPOSALS · -111 SPORTSBET
21.8MODEL DISPOSALS · σ 4.0
σ SPREAD±4.0LINEU24.5PERCENTILE79th
21 disposalsACTUAL · GRADED VS THE CLOSING LINE
+2.40uSTAKE 2.5u · ON THE PUBLIC RECORD
WINOne network. Five channels.
Every sport runs through the same pipeline: model, calibration, evening delivery, public grading. A channel only goes to air once its model clears the out-of-sample bar.
ON AIRLIVEREADYIN DEVIN BUILD
+199uSEASON UNITS · 24 WEEKS
The flagship broadcast — every player prop on the nightly slate, priced and published the evening before tip-off.
LIVECROSS-SPORT · SHARED BANKROLL
Live on the same ranked board as the NBA — one shared 40u/day bankroll, common-currency EV, the same public grading.
+5.78%PROP-BOOK HOLD · OUT OF SAMPLE
Promotion-ready player-prop book — a structural under-lean that holds +5.78% out of sample. Coming online on the go-ahead.
OFF AIRIN DEVELOPMENT · HARD-GATED
A V6 anytime-scorer engine forward-tracking against closing prices. Off-air until it clears the same out-of-sample bar — no picks or numbers shown.
WC '26WORLD CUP · IN DEVELOPMENT
A Dixon-Coles scoreline engine for the 2026 World Cup — one matrix prices the match book, a minutes mixture prices player props. Example board until it clears forward validation.
Tonight’s programming guide.
Every feature on the network is a channel. Tune into any of them for the full breakdown — what it is, how it works, and the real numbers behind it.
CH 11The ModelThe engine room — how every line gets priced.CH 12Bet PulseWhat the room is actually backing, live.CH 13Beat the ModelAgree, disagree — climb the board, win the month.CH 14The Bankroll DeskUnit sizing, caps and a P&L calendar.CH 15Player AnalysisA research desk, not just a pick.CH 16Prop Finder & Alt LaddersSearch the slate, climb the alt ladder.CH 17Track Record & TransparencyEvery settled pick. Including the losses.CH 18Injuries DeskSlate-relevant status, mapped to props.
Network standards.
The rules of the broadcast. They don’t bend on a losing week, and they don’t need to on a winning one.
If data is stale, blocked or untrusted, the pick shows an explicit status badge. We never silently fall back to old picks — dead air beats wrong air.
Picks land the evening before the event. You get time to review, shop prices across books, and decide with a clear head.
Every pick is graded against the closing line and archived. Wins, losses, and the weeks we went backwards — all of it stays up.
No lock-in. Cancel from the billing portal in settings, with refunds prorated by remaining days. Walking away should be easy.
Conservative by design: a hard 5u cap per pick and 25u per day, with one shared 40u/day bankroll across the sports you follow. Recommended stakes follow capped fractional Kelly.
Off-market odds — more than ±0.10 dec off the best tracked price — are excluded from the public leaderboard so nobody games the board with custom lines. They still count to your personal record.
The stats package.
Twenty-four weeks of graded results. Red weeks are losses — they stay on the board, because a record with the losses removed isn’t a record.
Cumulative units · last 24 weeks+199u
Weeks up20/24Best week+18uWorst week-5u
Graded vs closing lines · full pick-by-pick archive on the track record.
Think you can beat the model?
Beat the Model is the nightly game show: the model posts its 15 highest-conviction calls, you agree or disagree on each before lock. Disagree and be right, score a point. Disagree and be wrong, lose one. Top of the board when the month closes takes the prize.
ON AIR✓ AGREE
Stand with the model. No risk, no reward — anyone can copy the picks and tie at zero.
ON AIR✗ DISAGREE
Call the model wrong. Right = +1 point. Wrong = −1. Only real reads climb the board.
PRIZE 01 · BEAT THE MODEL$100 / month
Top the nightly agree/disagree board when the month closes. No money staked — pure read against the model and the closing line.
PRIZE 02 · MEMBER LEADERBOARDSeason standings
A separate, season-long ROI leaderboard of real member results. Eligibility: off-market odds (more than ±0.10 dec off the best tracked price) are excluded — they still count to your personal record.
See the leaderboard →The production truck.
The picks are the show — these are the tools around them. Every monitor below is a real surface inside the product, not a mock-up.
Bankroll + Kelly staking
Unit sizing, daily caps (5u/pick, 40u/day), open exposure, drawdown, and a P&L calendar. Recommended stakes follow capped fractional Kelly.
Props finder
Search, sort and filter every scored prop on the slate — market, side, pool, EV, probability, model rank.
Player & team analysis
Research pages, not just picks: baselines, rolling form, every market a player carries; team matchup metrics and lineup context.
Live bet pulse
What members are actually backing — units staked, user counts, and how much action comes from lifetime-profitable bettors.
Injury desk
Slate-relevant reports grouped by team, each mapped to the props it affects — usage absorption, lineup shuffles, minutes caps.
Alt-line ladders
Every rung priced with per-line odds and EV, the best-EV rung flagged — take the rung that fits your risk.
Multi-book pricing
The major books side by side, best price starred, provenance on every number — when it was quoted and how much we trust it.
Every tool ships with every package during the free playoffs windowThe full lineup →
Pick your coverage.
Special coverage
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Daily preview · 3 picks · no model reasoning.
- 3 picks/day
- Edge + line preview
- Read track record
- Email digest
Full slate every evening · model reasoning · alt lines · region-aware pricing.
- All picks · NBA live + AFL live + MLB coming
- Model reasoning per pick
- Alt-line ladder with EV
- Region-aware pricing
- Cross-sport shared 40u/day bankroll
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- Bet slip + halved-unit math
- Live pulse · settlement alerts
- Beat the Model leaderboard
Everything in Premium · 2 months free · priority support.
- Everything in Premium
- 2 months free
- Priority support
- Early sport access
Roll the tape on one settled pick.
Press play and watch a call run start to finish — the form line draws as the game plays, the price ticks live, and at the buzzer it settles on the public record. Illustrative sample pick
LIVE PRICE1.90SportsBet
ACTUAL 19 disposals · stake 2.5u → +2.25u
WINQuestions from the floor.
Typically 3–10 picks per day, varying by sport schedule. Weekend and playoff periods can see 10+ picks.
Picks are released the evening before the event so you have time to review, secure best prices, and avoid last-minute decisions.
A PyTorch ensemble trained on player-vs-team deviations, defense-rank features, and lineup context. Predictions are calibrated against historical settled outcomes.
We halved the per-pick max to 5u (was 10u) and daily cap to 25u (was 50u) to be more conservative with member bankrolls while maintaining the same ROI.
We fail closed — the pick shows an explicit status badge. We never silently fall back to old picks. Stale, missing, blocked, and untrusted are distinct visible states.
Yes. No lock-in. Cancel through the billing portal in your settings — refunds prorated by remaining days.
Tonight · and every nightThe broadcast starts
The broadcast starts
before the game does.
Free through the NBA Playoffs. Evening delivery, public record, cancel anytime.