Trust · 4 min read

Why we'd rather show nothing

Stale, blocked, untrusted, missing. The four states that stop a pick from shipping — and why a silent fallback is the worst answer a model can give.

Most predictive systems quietly degrade. A data source goes stale, a feature drifts, an upstream API rate-limits — and the model just shrugs and returns whatever it can scrape together. The user sees a number that looks like every other number, and trusts it the same way.

Veritas Signals does the opposite. If the availability gate fails, the pick is withheld and the member surface reports that no eligible pick is available.

The four states

Stale — the price moved more than our band since the model snapshot.
Blocked — a required upstream source returned an error or no data.
Untrusted — a sanity check inside the pipeline failed (e.g. a player listed as out is being projected for full minutes).
Missing — the market isn't carried by the books we know about for this user's region.