Reading a track record honestly
ROI, strike rate, units. Which one to trust, which one to ignore for the first six months, and why our charts include the bad months on purpose.
Anyone can show you a track record. The question is which numbers in it you should actually update your beliefs on, and which are noise.
Strike rate without ROI is theatre
A 70% strike rate at average odds of -300 is breakeven at best. A 45% strike rate at +130 is a serious edge. Strike rate in isolation tells you almost nothing about whether a system makes money — which is why operators love quoting it.
ROI per unit is the honest number
Return on investment per unit staked, measured over enough picks to outlast luck, is the closest thing to a clean signal you'll get. We publish it. We also publish the losing weeks, because hiding them would compress the variance picture and lie about the experience.
Why the chart shows downturns
Real edges go through drawdowns. A track record that never dips is either too short to have hit one yet, cherry-picked, or fabricated. Ours dips because the math says it has to.