A calibrated probability behind every line on the slate, re-priced from scratch each night and published the evening before tip-off. No human overrides, no deleted losses — every call graded against the closing line on the public record.
One calibrated model per sport that scores every player prop on the slate, turns raw projections into probabilities you can price against, and ranks the field by risk-adjusted EV. A 60% read behaves like 60% over time — calibration is the product.
Nightly run re-prices the full slate; raw projections become per-market calibrated probabilities validated against thousands of settled outcomes; picks publish the evening before with line, book, stake and reasoning; after settlement each pick is graded against the closing line and archived. Fail-closed: stale, blocked or untrusted data shows an explicit badge — never a silent fallback.
Per-market calibration with low-sample shrinkage, a readiness gate the artifact must pass before it ships, and one canonical settled feed that bankroll, leaderboard and track record all read from — so the numbers can never disagree.
Each code is its own channel — tune in for the full breakdown: the model, a live track record, the per-market record, and the features built for that sport.
The flagship book. Fifteen curated picks per slate — only props with EV greater than 0.08 at odds of 3.5 or shorter make the cut. Top 1 and Top 3 are the model's own highest-conviction calls. Combo markets (pts+reb, pts+ast, reb+ast) are shadow-tracked and deliberately omitted from the book until they earn their place.
Live and combined with NBA on a shared ranked board and a shared bankroll. The cross-sport engine recalibrates each sport to a common-currency EV_adj so an AFL edge and an NBA edge are measured on the same scale — multi-select the sports and the day's 40-unit bankroll pools across exactly those you pick.
A six-market GBM stack with isotonic calibration and market-edge weighting on the AU-quotable OVER markets. Walk-forward out-of-sample: the lead Top-3 pool holds +26.4% on TEST and +53.9% on the 2026 holdout; the served Premium pool (~11-12 picks/slate) runs +5.4% / +8.6%. (The under edge stays geo-fenced US, out of scope.)
A V3 stacked engine with a try-scorer edge (park factors + matchup priors). Cleared its out-of-sample bar — +20.7% on the V3 backtest, with the last-10-rounds Top-3 pool +103.7%. The try-scorer and h2h markets carry the edge.
Free through the NBA Playoffs — evening delivery, public record, cancel anytime.
